Recession? What Recession?

I am no trained economist. But I enjoy reading economic reports and attempting to make sense of the dismal science that is economics. It is a difficult profession because there are so many moving parts. Just when you think you have something figured out, along comes some information to re-adjust your view.

If you read the news and listen to the media, you would believe that the economy is heading off a cliff. Massive unemployment; foreclosures; bankruptcies and layoffs are just around the corner we are being told. But the eye test is telling me something different. In the last 30 days, I hosted three client dinners at fine dining restaurants- two in the Dallas/Fort Worth area and one in Atlanta.

I was surprised by what I witnessed. Three restaurants on weeknights absolutely packed. My clients' businesses seem to be moving along well and some of those are construction related. Maybe it is different in Atlanta and Dallas than in other parts of the country. But it definitely doesn't feel like a recession to me.

This brings me to the point of this blog. Economists tend to have loads of book smarts. But sometimes that becomes a hindrance to seeing the good things that are taking place daily. I believe that the more degreed a person becomes, the more pessimistic they become. I have no scientific studies to back this up. It is just an observation.

A lot of the opinions about the economy coming out of the top academic institutions have been pessimistic for the last 20 years. And more often than not, they have been wrong. I was attending an investment conference in the Spring of 2007 and one of the money managers made this comment, "You sound a lot smarter when your pessimistic. But history usually rewards those who lean on the side of optimism." I believe this quote has a lot of wisdom behind it.

You protect yourself from being a wild-eyed fool by being overly cautious. When you predict the sky is falling, one day you will be right (at least to a small degree). But history tells a different story. Progress, innovation, rising standards of living, wealth creation carry on despite the walls of worry that they have to overcome.

Optimism is not a foolish philosophy. Especially, if your hope is planted in the promises of God. He created this world good- Genesis 1:31. The Fall (sin) has seriously marred His perfect creation- Genesis 3. God has promised to redeem mankind and this world from the effects of sin by initiating a new Kingdom through His Son- Christ- Isaiah 65; Revelation 20.

The story of God is that He has given mankind a stewardship responsibility to not only care for the earth but to improve it- Genesis 1:28. This should give us great hope that tomorrow will be better than today. Recessions tend to be mostly mental. They snowball into significant economic downturns if people start living out of fear versus continuing to go about their daily responsibilities. If everyone takes the responsibility of stewardship seriously, we will work hard each day to make this world more like our eternal home.

For God's Glory,

Ashley Hodge