Thoughts on The Fourth Turning

I finished a book called The Fourth Turning that was written in 1997 after loosely discussing the theme of the book with a friend. The book is a pessimistic guess on what the American experience might look like from 2000- 2020. It has gathered attention because some of the predictions have materialized to some degree: war on terror and global financial crisis.

You can read a brief summary of the book here. The authors- Strauss and Howe- lay out three views for history:

1. Chaotic time: history has no path. It is just a series of random, meaningless events.

2. Cyclical time: there is a pattern to history. Just like the seasons of Winter, Spring, Summer, Fall, history follows a process of renewal (high), awakening, unraveling, crisis.

3. Linear time: time is a progressive story with a beginning and an end. There will be struggles along the way but ultimately mankind is on an upwards, progressive path.

From my understanding of biblical revelation, I believe there is a fourth option that Christians would adhere to:

4. Combination of cyclical/linear time: God has created a natural order. There is certainly a cyclicality to this order as we see evidenced in the Seasons. God has also revealed a progressive redemptive plan. Mankind starts in a pristine garden (Genesis). We end up in a restored city (Revelation). The biblical story of Creation, Fall, Redemption and Restoration has a definite linear quality to it.

Strauss and Howe take the view that history is cyclical. They propose the theory that the US will experience crisis every generation (80 years or so). They point to: the American Revolution in the 1770s; Civil War in the 1860s; Great Depression/World War II in the 1930s/1940s to make their point.

In their view, we are due for a life altering crisis that will redefine our nation. I don't know how to think about their views. History may look at this period of 2000-2009 as a significant enough crisis to qualify for their gloomy view. However, Strauss/Howe believe things will get much worse. They see a period similiar to the 1930s and 1940s in store for us. They think we will experience political upheaval, potential world wars, economic distress and the potential collapse of American society.

It is scary stuff. What should a Christian do about these type of predictions? Some things never change. God has a plan that He is unfolding. We are privy to the end result but not the process. We are called to live a biblical lifestyle in every economic period- a balance between pessimism about the nature of man and hopefullness centered on the goodness of God.

I have a quote on my desk by John Kenneth Galbraith, "The function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable." Only God knows the future. It is a good future for those who have been called according to His purpose. We must proceed in faith, wisdom, hope and love.

America is going through a natural economic cycle of reaping economic distress caused by the carelessness of consumers and the greed/stupidity of policymakers. The results have been worse than I saw coming. But there is hope that if we return to prudence, stewardship and sound financial principles that we will recover and build a stronger tomorrow for our children. We seem to be at a crucial moment in our country's history. We need to pray for God's favor and for leaders who are filled with wisdom in navigating these problems.

More than anything, we (I) need to be reminded of this truth. It is a trustworthy statement that deserves full attention, Christ came to save sinners of which I am the worst of them- I Timothy 1:15. At the root of our nation's problems is the same culprit of every problem: sin. Greed, addiction to leisure, presuming on tomorrow, selfishness, laziness, lust and pride. These things don't unchecked for long. We cannot sow bad seeds and pray every year for crop failure. It is time to sow seeds that produce good crops: love for God and neighbor, unselfishness, generosity, humility, courage and goodness.

Trusting in God's Plan,

Ashley Hodge